Posted by
C-Hayes on Sunday, March 09, 2008 7:22:53 PM
The best political "statistician" out there, Michael Barone,
weighs in on her momentum after March 4, and if she still has an outside shot at the nomination:
"...the delegate count has changed hardly at all. Three victories in four states with 370 delegates netted Clinton only about a 20-delegate edge, leaving her still about 100 delegates behind....
"...The storyline is changing, too. For the first time in a long campaign cycle, the mainstream media have been pursuing stories that reflect badly on Obama: his close ties and property purchase with Chicago political operator Tony Rezko, now on trial in federal court; his chief economic adviser's purported assurance to a Canadian diplomat that Obama doesn't really mean he'll ditch NAFTA, as he was suggesting in trade-wary Ohio; Obama's pastor's recent award to the man Obama refers to as 'Minister Farrakhan.'
...But Clinton is still about 100 delegates behind, and the Democrats' proportional representation rules make it impossible for her to close the gap in the remaining primaries. Her only plausible path to the nomination is to win a majority of super-delegates (party and public officials) and, perhaps, to reverse the party's decision that disqualified the Michigan and Florida delegations — i.e., overruling the voters in one case, and changing the rules after the game has been played in the other."
Somehow, I don't think "overruling the voters" or "changing the rules" will bother Hillary all that much...
Keep an eye out for stories on what to do with Michigan and Florida, especially after Hillary likely wins Pennsylvania, as the more momentum she has, the more those states will be talked about. The last thing voters in those two states want is to not be counted, but they also likely don't want to go through the hassle of another election if they have to pay for it...
...I mean, come on - is casting another vote for Hillary or Obama really worth it?